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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (1-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) I had the Bengals going 12-4 before the season started. I thought they were better than their record last season because they were able to be a dominant team (11-5) without relying on always winning the turnover battle. Turnover margins are really unpredictable…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at Washington Redskins (0-1) The Redskins lost in Houston last week and it seems that people have already given up on them as a bounce back team. After all, the Texans won just 2 games last season. I don’t think that’s the right reaction. I think it’s…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (0-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-0) This is the overreaction line of the week. A week ago, most people had the Patriots as one of the top few teams in the NFL and had the Vikings as mediocre at best. The Vikings looked good blowing out a Rams…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (1-0) at Carolina Panthers (1-0) The Lions were one of my underrated teams coming into the season. I felt the same way about the Lions as I did about the Panthers last season, when I predicted they would go 12-4, win the NFC South, and get a first…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (0-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-0) The Bears were one of my overrated teams going into the season. The Bears had a great offense last season, but they also had a defense that was worse than their offense was good. This season, I expected their offense to be…
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Continue reading →: New York Jets at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick
New York Jets (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-1) The Packers got blown out in Seattle week 1, but there’s no shame in that and that doesn’t prove they won’t be a good team this season. They were 6-2 in games that Aaron Rodgers started and finished last season and…
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Continue reading →: Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-1) Last week I mentioned the Ravens’ home dominance in the write up about their game against the Bengals. The Ravens weren’t able to beat the Bengals, even in Baltimore, but the Ravens are still historically very good at home in the John Harbaugh/Joe…
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Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 1
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
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Continue reading →: 2014 Week 1 NFL Picks Results
Straight Up: 9-7 Against the Spread: 11-5 Pick of the Week: 1-0 High Confidence: 0-1 Medium Confidence: 5-0 Low Confidence: 2-1 None Confidence: 3-3 Upset Picks: 1-1
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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) This is another one I could go either way on. I think the line is essentially where it should be. I have these two teams as fairly even, as does this line, which favors the home team Buccaneers by 2.5 points. These…
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