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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0) I don’t think we’re getting any line value with either side here. The Broncos are a very good team that deserves to be 7.5 point favorites over the Colts, who aren’t as good as their record has suggested over the past 2 seasons…
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Continue reading →: Washington Redskins at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick
Washington Redskins (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0) Both of these teams are going to be better than they were last season. These two teams finished worst and 2nd worst respectively last season, after both made the playoffs the previous season. The Texans went from 12 wins to 2 wins in…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0) These two teams tend to be a lot better at home than on the road. Matt Ryan is 36-12 at home in his career, including 28-19 ATS and 5-3 ATS as home underdogs. The Saints, meanwhile, are 31-10 ATS at home since…
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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-0) This is another one where I wish I had bet earlier when the Rams were 6 point favorites before Sam Bradford tore his ACL. I thought the Rams were overrated before Bradford’s injury, as they finished 28th in rate of moving the chains…
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Continue reading →: Oakland Raiders at New York Jets: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick
Oakland Raiders (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0) I don’t understand this line. These two teams are essentially equal in my eyes, but the Jets are still favored by 5.5 points. This line should be about 3, the standard amount given for homefield advantage. The Raiders are going to be…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) Those who follow these picks know I like to use a lot of situational trends. For example, if a team is big favorites before a game in which they are big underdogs, I tend to go the other direction expecting the team to…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (0-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-0) This is another game where I’m kicking myself for not betting it earlier as the Patriots used to be favorites of a mere 1.5 points. I would have been fairly confident in them -1.5. Tom Brady is 42-18 ATS as an underdog…
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0) The Bears had a great offense last season, but they also had a defense that was worse than their offense was good. This season, I expect their offense to be worse without their defense being much better. The Bears moved the chains at…
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Continue reading →: Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-0) This game is between two teams in the Ravens and the Bengals who are much better at home than on the road. The Ravens are 41-9 at home since 2008, Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh’s first season with the team. As a result,…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) The Jaguars are a popular “sleeper” team and are popularly seen as one of the most improved teams in the NFL this off-season. I don’t understand that at all. The Jaguars may have won 4 games last season, but they were even worse…
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