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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (2-5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) in London Normally the rule of thumb in London games is to pick the favorite, as the better team tends to be better suited to play in a weird situation in a London game, covering the spread at a 63.4% rate all-time. In…
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Continue reading →: Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-0) The Eagles are the league’s last remaining undefeated team, but they’ve been very reliant on the turnover margin, leading the league by far with a +12 turnover margin. That’s a concern because turnovers are not really predictive week-to-week and, in terms of schedule…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (3-4) at Dallas Cowboys (5-2) The Bears pulled the huge upset against the Patriots last week, but they still rank just 25th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 4 points below average, and my roster rankings have them even worse, about 6 points below average. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are…
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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (3-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-1) The Cardinals were at the top of my overrated teams list coming into the season. They went 11-6 last season, but needed a +12 turnover margin to get to that record, which is not predictive, and they ranked just 14th in overall efficiency,…
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Continue reading →: Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick
Tennessee Titans (4-2) at Houston Texans (1-4-1) The Titans have two key players who are highly questionable after not practicing on Friday, one on each side of the ball, starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill and stud interior defender Jeffrey Simmons. Both players could still play, but I want to lock in…
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Continue reading →: Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (4-3) at Detroit Lions (1-5) This is one of the toughest calls of the week, as both teams are probably a little overrated. The Lions began the season as the highest scoring team in the league through 4 games, averaging 35.0 points per game, before being held to…
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Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (3-4) at Buffalo Bills (5-1) The Packers have started 3-4, a year after going 13-4, but their drop off isn’t all that surprising. Despite their record last season, the Packers finished just 10th in point differential and 11th in overall efficiency, despite an MVP season from Aaron…
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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (2-5) at Atlanta Falcons (3-4) The Panthers pulled the massive upset at home against the Buccaneers last week as 13-point home underdogs, but teams tend to have a hard time following up a big home upset win, covering at a 41.9% rate all-time after a home upset win…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (4-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4) The Buccaneers have lost back-to-back games as big road favorites against last place teams to fall to 3-4 on the season, but they still rank 8th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 2.5 points above average and, even with some key players missing…
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Continue reading →: 2022 Week 7 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week WAS +5 vs. GB High Confidence Picks NYJ -1 @ DEN Medium Confidence Picks DAL -6.5 vs. DET IND +2.5 @ TEN NE -8.5 vs. CHI Low Confidence Picks PIT +7.5 @ MIA LAC -5 vs. SEA JAX -3 vs. NYG KC -1 @ SF ATL…
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