Buffalo Bills (6-1) at New York Jets (5-3)

The Jets are 5-3, but are 11.5-point home underdogs against the Bills, the first time a team has been home underdogs of 11 points or more despite a record 5-3 or better since the 2007 Giants were 10-5 against the undefeated New England Patriots in week 17. In some sense that makes sense, as the Bills blow out almost everyone they beat, with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points per game over the past two seasons, as opposed to a margin of defeat of 7.1 points per game.

However, this line still does seem a little high. The Jets have significant problems on offense, missing starting wide receiver Corey Davis, impressive rookie running back Breece Hall, and talented starting right tackle Alijah Vera-Tucker, among other lesser absences, but their defense is legitimately one of the best in the league, ranking 3rd in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency. They could make this game at least somewhat competitive with the Bills and, while they’re still likely to lose by multiple scores, my calculated line has them as just 9-point underdogs, so we’re getting some value with them at +11.5. There’s not enough here for the Jets to be worth betting, but they’re the better side for pick ‘em purposes.

Buffalo Bills 23 New York Jets 13

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +11.5

Confidence: Low