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Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (3-4) at Buffalo Bills (5-1) The Packers have started 3-4, a year after going 13-4, but their drop off isn’t all that surprising. Despite their record last season, the Packers finished just 10th in point differential and 11th in overall efficiency, despite an MVP season from Aaron…
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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (2-5) at Atlanta Falcons (3-4) The Panthers pulled the massive upset at home against the Buccaneers last week as 13-point home underdogs, but teams tend to have a hard time following up a big home upset win, covering at a 41.9% rate all-time after a home upset win…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (4-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4) The Buccaneers have lost back-to-back games as big road favorites against last place teams to fall to 3-4 on the season, but they still rank 8th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 2.5 points above average and, even with some key players missing…
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Continue reading →: 2022 Week 7 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week WAS +5 vs. GB High Confidence Picks NYJ -1 @ DEN Medium Confidence Picks DAL -6.5 vs. DET IND +2.5 @ TEN NE -8.5 vs. CHI Low Confidence Picks PIT +7.5 @ MIA LAC -5 vs. SEA JAX -3 vs. NYG KC -1 @ SF ATL…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at New England Patriots: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (2-4) at New England Patriots (3-3) Coming into the season, many regarded the Bears as among the worst, if not the worst team in the league. They won a couple early games, but the way they won those games suggested they were still one of the worst teams…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-3) The Chiefs have a pair of losses, but both of them were games they easily could have won. One of the losses came by 4 points on a late drive against a Bills team that is arguably the best in the…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (1-4) at Dallas Cowboys (4-2) The Lions began the season as the highest scoring team in the league through 4 games, averaging 35.0 points per game, before being shut out in week 5 against the Patriots. The common thinking seems to be that the Lions’ dominant offensive start…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick
New York Giants (5-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4) The Giants have a 5-1 record, while the Jaguars are just 2-4, but the Jaguars actually have the better point differential between these two teams (+24 vs. +14). While all of the Giants’ wins have come by just one score, the Jaguars’…
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Continue reading →: New York Jets at Denver Broncos: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick
New York Jets (4-2) at Denver Broncos (2-4) A week ago on the early line, the Broncos were 3.5-point favorites, but this line has since shrunk to favor the Broncos by only one point. Normally I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be an overreaction…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (3-2-1) at Tennessee Titans (3-2) When these two teams met for the first time this season back in week 4, the Titans pulled the road upset by a final score of 24-17. With this rematch being in Tennessee, many are assuming that the Titans will have an easier…
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