New York Giants (5-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4)

The Giants have a 5-1 record, while the Jaguars are just 2-4, but the Jaguars actually have the better point differential between these two teams (+24 vs. +14). While all of the Giants’ wins have come by just one score, the Jaguars’ wins have come by 24 and 28, while their losses have all come by one score. Big blowout wins tend to be much more predictive of future success than close wins and the gap between these two teams is even more pronounced if you look at schedule adjusted efficiency, where the 9th ranked Jaguars have a 5.5-point edge over the 23rd ranked Giants. My roster rankings have these two teams closer together than schedule adjusted efficiency, but, any way you look at it, the Jaguars are the slightly better team, despite not having nearly as good of a record.

Unfortunately, the odds makers are still not giving the Giants any respect, despite their record, so we’re not getting any line value with the Jaguars, who are favored by a full field goal at home, even being three games worse than the Giants in the standings. The Jaguars are in a better spot, as the Giants are coming off of a big home upset win over the Ravens last week, which tends to be a situation in which teams are flat the following week, covering the spread at just a 41.3% rate after a home upset win as underdogs of 5 points or more. However, that isn’t enough for the Jaguars to be worth betting without getting any real line value, so this is only a low confidence pick.

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville -3

Confidence: Low