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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons: 2021 Week 16 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (2-11-1) at Atlanta Falcons (6-8) The Falcons are 6-8 and technically still in the mix for a playoff spot in the NFC, but they don’t have any impressive wins, as all six of their wins have come by one-score against teams with a .500 record or worse. Meanwhile,…
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Continue reading →: Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2021 Week 16 NFL Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-4) I am not locking in a lot of bets this week until gameday morning because of COVID uncertainty, but this is one I want to lock in right now. The Chiefs are currently missing two of their most important players, wide receiver…
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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders: 2021 Week 16 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (7-7) at Las Vegas Raiders (7-7) The Raiders are 7-7, but they have a 4-2 record in one-score games and a 3-0 overtime record, so they could easily have a couple more losses. On top of that, their point differential of -75 is significantly worse than would be…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers: 2021 Week 16 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (7-7) at Green Bay Packers (11-3) The Packers stand alone with the league’s best record at 11-3, but they haven’t been dominant in most of their wins. As a result, they rank just 10th in the NFL in point differential at +57 and, in terms of schedule adjusted…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals: 2021 Week 16 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (8-6) at Arizona Cardinals (10-4) The Cardinals started the season 7-0 and survived a 3-game stretch without quarterback Kyler Murray in which they went 2-1, but since Murray has returned from injury, I have thought the Cardinals are an overrated team. The Cardinals may have gone 2-1 without…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans: 2021 Week 16 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (8-6) at Tennessee Titans (9-5) The Titans have a better record than the 49ers, but more predictive metrics like yards per play and first down rate show the 49ers to be a significantly better team, especially when you take into account that they have faced a tougher…
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Continue reading →: 2021 Week 15 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week NE +2.5 @ IND High Confidence Picks KC -3 @ LAC BAL +9.5 vs. GB Medium Confidence Picks DAL -10.5 @ NYG TEN +1.5 @ PIT JAX -5 vs. HOU NYJ +10.5 @ MIA PHI -6.5 vs. WAS Low Confidence Picks SF -8.5 vs. ATL CIN…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams: 2021 Week 15 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (5-8) at Los Angeles Rams (9-4) The Rams were the third team to have a game rescheduled because of COVID this week. They actually had more cases than Washington or Cleveland at one point, knocking out about half of their roster, but it never affected their quarterback room…
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Continue reading →: Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles: 2021 Week 15 NFL Pick
Washington Football Team (6-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-7) Earlier this week, the Eagles were 4-point home favorites in this game and I was strongly considering placing a bet on them. Both teams are 6-7, but the Eagles have a much better point differential at +46 (12th in the NFL), as…
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Continue reading →: Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns: 2021 Week 15 NFL Pick
Las Vegas Raiders (6-7) at Cleveland Browns (7-6) Earlier in the week, the Raiders were 6.5-point underdogs and I liked them a lot at that number. That line swung from favoring the Browns by just a field goal on the early line and I typically like fading significant week-to-week line…
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