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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick
New York Giants (1-3) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1) The Giants won their first game of the season last week, but it came against an overrated Saints team that has been inconsistent all season and that was missing several key players due to injury or suspension. That result shifted this line…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (2-2) at Arizona Cardinals (4-0) The Cardinals were favored by just 2.5 points in this matchup last week on the early line and have since shifted to 5 point favorites, a significant shift given that more than 20% of games are decided by 3-4 points. Normally I…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (3-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (3-1) Both of these teams have gotten out to impressive 3-1 starts, but the Browns have been the better team. They rank 4th in first down rate and 2nd in yards per play allowed, which are the most predictive offensive and defensive stats,…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (0-4) at Minnesota Vikings (1-3) The Vikings are just 1-3, but they have played much better than their record, playing teams that are a combined 12-4 through four weeks who could all end up as playoff qualifiers and playing all of their teams close, losing by a combined…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at Houston Texans: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (1-3) at Houston Texans (1-3) The Patriots are 1-3, but they’ve had some bad luck to get to that point, as two of their three losses came by a combined 3 points in games in which they lost three fumbles. Fumbles and fumble recovery rate are among…
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Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) Both of these teams are 3-1, but one is clearly getting more respect than the other, with the Packers favored by a field goal on the road. It’s understandable, given that the Packers have a history of recent success and have reigning…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Rams (3-1) at Seattle Seahawks (2-2) The Rams got off to an impressive 3-0 start, capped by a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but they lost at home last week to another impressive team, the Arizona Cardinals. The Seahawks, meanwhile, bounced back from two straight losses to…
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Continue reading →: 2021 Week 4 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week DAL -4.5 vs. CAR High Confidence Picks LV +3 @ LAC CLE PK @ MIN Medium Confidence Picks ARZ +4 @ LAR GB -6.5 vs. PIT NE +7 vs. TB NYG +7 @ NO CIN -7.5 vs. JAX Low Confidence Picks ATL +2 vs. WAS SF…
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Continue reading →: Washington Football Team at Atlanta Falcons: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick
Washington Football Team (1-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2) Washington is 1-2 with their only win coming by just 1 point over the Giants at home, but they are still a little overrated, favored by 2 points on the road in Atlanta, against a Falcons team that I have just a…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (1-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-1) I expected the 49ers to win the NFC West and be one of the top teams in the NFC coming into the season, but that was primarily dependent on them staying significantly healthier than a year ago. The 49ers were much better…
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