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Continue reading →: Tennessee Titans at New York Jets: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick
Tennessee Titans (2-1) at New York Jets (0-3) This is a pretty unappealing game to bet on. I have thought the Titans are overrated since before the season began. They won 11 games a year ago, but they faced an easy schedule and went 7-2 in one score games, while…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (0-3) at Chicago Bears (1-2) The big question for the Bears this week is who is going to start at quarterback. Veteran Andy Dalton began the season as the starter, much to the chagrin of fans who wanted to see rookie first round pick Justin Fields get a…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) The Chiefs have started the season 1-2, matching last season’s regular season loss total, but I am not too concerned about them going forward. They have faced a relatively tough schedule overall and both of their losses could have easily been wins,…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-2) The Browns lost week one, but they still are one of the top teams in the league, as their loss came in Kansas City in a game in which the Browns won both the first down rate (7.68%) and yards per play battle…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (0-3) at Miami Dolphins (1-2) The Dolphins were on my overrated teams list going into the season. They won 10 games a year ago, but they faced a very easy schedule and they benefited from an unsustainably high turnover margin (+11), opponent’s field goal percentage (3rd lowest at…
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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (1-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-1) The Bills are favored by 17 points in this matchup, but it should be 21 according to my calculated line, as the Texans have the worst roster in the league around the quarterback and only had early success this season because of the…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Denver Broncos (3-0) The Denver Broncos have gotten off to a 3-0 and, while they have faced bad teams in all three games (Giants, Jets, Jaguars), they have won all three in convincing fashion, by an average of 20 points per game. This home matchup against…
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Continue reading →: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) at New England Patriots (1-2) This is arguably the most anticipated regular season matchup of all time with Tom Brady returning to New England with his new team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers won the Super Bowl in Tom Brady’s first season in Tampa Bay,…
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Continue reading →: Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick
Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-1) The Chargers pulled a big upset win over the Chiefs last week, but they needed to win the turnover battle by 4 to do so, which is not predictive week-to-week. In more predictive metrics, the Chargers had a -7.92% first down…
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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (3-0) at Los Angeles Rams (3-0) The Rams are getting all of the attention for their 3-0 start, but the Cardinals have been equally impressive, if not more so, actually ranking slightly higher overall than the Rams in more predictive metrics. Despite that, the Rams are being favored…
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