Los Angeles Rams (3-1) at Seattle Seahawks (2-2)

The Rams got off to an impressive 3-0 start, capped by a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but they lost at home last week to another impressive team, the Arizona Cardinals. The Seahawks, meanwhile, bounced back from two straight losses to win in San Francisco last week, a quality win on the road. Despite that, this line has shifted from favoring the Rams by 1.5 points a week ago up to 2.5 points this week. That’s not a significant shift, but it’s a shift away from what you would expect based on last week’s results.

One possible reason for the shift is that Seahawks running back Chris Carson will likely be out, or at least limited, but the Seahawks will get right tackle Brandon Shell back, which somewhat cancels that out because the Seahawks have better running back depth than offensive tackle depth. The Seahawks also have been close to an automatic bet on Thursday Night in the Russell Wilson era, going 9-0-1 ATS, including 5-0 ATS at home. 

I normally don’t put too much stock into those types of things, but the Seahawks have had the same coach and quarterback throughout that stretch, so it’s possible they just prepare better on short weeks. I would need a full field goal to bet the Seahawks against the spread, as my calculated line is even, but this is no worse than a 50/50 bet on the money line, so the Seahawks are worth a play at +120.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Los Angeles Rams 23 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Seattle +2.5

Confidence: Low