Seattle Seahawks (1-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-1)

I expected the 49ers to win the NFC West and be one of the top teams in the NFC coming into the season, but that was primarily dependent on them staying significantly healthier than a year ago. The 49ers were much better than their 6-10 record suggested last season and they are still not as injury plagued as a year ago, but the injuries are piling up, as they are missing starting linebacker Dre Greenlaw, their top two cornerbacks Jason Verrett and K’Waun Williams, starting running back Raheem Mostert, and possibly their stud tight end George Kittle, who barely practiced this week.

I still have the 49ers a little bit better than the Seahawks, a solid team in their own right, so this line, which only favors them by 2.5 points at home, is too low, but I can’t bet on the 49ers confidently given the uncertainty around Kittle’s status and how much he will play. I also don’t like going against Russell Wilson after back-to-back losses, as he is 30-13-3 ATS in his career off of a loss and 9-1 ATS off of back-to-back losses. This is a low confidence pick on the 49ers right now, but I would probably drop all confidence if Kittle is ruled out or significantly limited.

San Francisco 49ers 28 Seattle Seahawks 24

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -2.5

Confidence: Low