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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins: 2019 Week 7 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (5-0) at Washington Redskins (1-5) The 49ers are just one of two undefeated teams left, along with the New England Patriots. The Patriots have the edge in average margin of victory (23.7 vs. 16.6), but that’s largely due to the Patriots having the significant edge in turnover…
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Continue reading →: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: 2019 Week 7 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (0-5) at Buffalo Bills (4-1) The Bills are favored by 17 points at home in this matchup with the Dolphins, the first time the Bills have been favored by this many points since the middle of the Jim Kelly era in 1992. The line is understandable though, as…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Rams at Atlanta Falcons: 2019 Week 7 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Rams (3-3) at Atlanta Falcons (1-5) The Rams made a splash move this week to acquire cornerback Jalen Ramsey from the Jaguars for a pair of first round picks, but they still have significant problems on this team. One problem is edge defender, where Clay Matthews remains out…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears: 2019 Week 7 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (5-1) at Chicago Bears (3-2) Coming out of the bye, the Bears get quarterback Mitch Trubisky back from a shoulder injury that cost him almost two full games (he got hurt 3 pass attempts into week 4), but I’m not sure how much that matters for this…
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Continue reading →: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: 2019 Week 7 NFL Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) at Dallas Cowboys (3-3) The conventional wisdom is that the sky is falling in Dallas, with the Cowboys being on a 3-game losing streak. However, the Cowboys actually have a positive first down rate differential across those three games, at +1.98%. Their -4 turnover margin over those…
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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: 2019 Week 7 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (4-2) at Indianapolis Colts (3-2) Typically, I like to go against significant week-to-week line movement, as it tends to be an overreaction to a single week of play. The Texans were 3-point underdogs in Indianapolis last week on the early line, but after their upset victory in Kansas…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans: 2019 Week 7 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Chargers (2-4) at Tennessee Titans (2-4) Going into the season, part of the reason why I liked the Titans was because they added Ryan Tannehill as a backup quarterback in the off-season, in case Marcus Mariota got hurt or struggled again. After Mariota led the Titans to a…
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Continue reading →: Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers: 2019 Week 7 NFL Pick
Oakland Raiders (3-2) at Green Bay Packers (5-1) The Raiders won back-to-back games before their week 6 bye and now seem to be overrated as a result. Those wins came against a banged up Colts team and a Bears team that hasn’t been nearly as good this season as last…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: 2019 Week 7 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) at Denver Broncos (2-4) During last week’s Broncos/Titans write up, I said I was disappointed the two teams were playing each other because I thought both teams were underrated. Fortunately, when two underrated teams square off, they tend to remain underrated, which is the case with…
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Continue reading →: 2019 Week 6 NFL Pick Results
2019 Total Against the Spread: 48-42-2 (53.26%) Pick of the Week: 5-1 (83.33%) High Confidence Picks: 10-3-1 (75.00%) Medium Confidence Picks: 8-10-1 (44.74%) Money Picks (Medium Confidence and higher): 23-14-2 (61.54%) Low Confidence Picks: 13-17 (43.33%) No Confidence Picks: 12-11 (52.17%) Upset Picks: 10-9 (52.63%) 2018 Total Against the Spread:…
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