Miami Dolphins (0-5) at Buffalo Bills (4-1)
The Bills are favored by 17 points at home in this matchup with the Dolphins, the first time the Bills have been favored by this many points since the middle of the Jim Kelly era in 1992. The line is understandable though, as the Dolphins are one of the worst teams of all-time, organized by a coaching staff and front office that is transparently not trying to win this season, while the Bills are having one of their best seasons of the past two decades, even if that isn’t saying much. Their +20 point differential is underwhelming considering their 4-1 record and that they’ve faced a relatively easy schedule, but they have that point differential despite a -3 turnover margin. Turnover margin tends to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis and the Bills rank 3rd in first down rate differential at +8.27%, only behind the undefeated Patriots and undefeated 49ers.
When it seemed like Josh Rosen was going to start this game at quarterback for Miami, I considered betting on the Bills, but the Dolphins are seemingly pulling the plug on Rosen and turning back to veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is at least somewhat proven and has some ability to handle the enormous amounts of pressure the Dolphins’ offensive line lets up. After taking over for Rosen in a battle of winless teams against the Redskins last week, Fitzpatrick was almost able to lead the comeback and has been the noticeably better quarterback this season. I’m still taking the Bills, but this is a no confidence pick. The Bills still don’t have a great offense, so if the Dolphins can make it to double digits, they have a good chance to cover. Whether or not they can make it to double digits against the Bills’ dominant defense is a big question though.
Buffalo Bills 24 Miami Dolphins 6
Pick against the spread: Buffalo -17