San Francisco 49ers (5-0) at Washington Redskins (1-5)

The 49ers are just one of two undefeated teams left, along with the New England Patriots. The Patriots have the edge in average margin of victory (23.7 vs. 16.6), but that’s largely due to the Patriots having the significant edge in turnover margin (+9 vs. +2), which tends to be very inconsistent week-to-week. In terms of first down rate differential, the Patriots have only a slight edge at +13.11% vs. +11.44% and the 49ers have faced a tougher schedule, so there’s a case to be made that the 49ers have been the best team in the league thus far. 

On the road this week against a Redskins team whose only win came by 1 against the league worst Dolphins, the 49ers are favored by 10 points, which is about right. I am actually going to take the Redskins against the spread for pick ‘em purposes because this could be a let down spot for the 49ers, on the road against a bad team, off of back-to-back big wins over the Browns and Rams, with a game against the 4-2 Panthers on deck. The 49ers could still cover this spread even if they don’t play their best game though, so this is one of my lowest confidence picks.

San Francisco 49ers 26 Washington Redskins 17

Pick against the spread: Washington +10

Confidence: None