Oakland Raiders (3-2) at Green Bay Packers (5-1)
The Raiders won back-to-back games before their week 6 bye and now seem to be overrated as a result. Those wins came against a banged up Colts team and a Bears team that hasn’t been nearly as good this season as last season. Those teams rank 20th and 23rd respectively in first down rate differential and the Raiders won those games by a combined 10 points. Including a 8-point week 1 home win over the mediocre Broncos, the Raiders’ 3 wins have come by a combined 18 points this season, while their two losses to the Vikings and Chiefs came by a combined 38 points, giving them a -20 point differential that is worst among teams with a winning record. In terms of first down rate differential, they rank just 21st at -1.68%.
Despite that, they are just 4.5-point road underdogs in Green Bay, against a 5-1 Packers team that is among the best in the NFL. Their win over the Lions’ last week was controversial because of some bad calls on Detroit, but they could have still won that game even without those calls, despite gifting the Lions a trio of turnovers. Turnover margin tends to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis and they won the first down rate battle convincingly (+9.33%) over a solid Detroit team. They failed to cover, winning by 1 as 4-point home favorites, but are still 40-21 ATS at home since 2011 in games Aaron Rodgers starts and finishes.
The Packers have a banged up receiving corps with Davante Adams, Geronimo Allison, and possibly Marquez Valdes-Scantling set to miss this game, but wide receiver is a big concern for the Raiders as well, who are without top wide receiver Tyrell Williams and lack depth behind him at the position. The Raiders are also likely to be without right tackle Trent Brown and, with right guard Gabe Jackson likely a week away from returning after being limited in practice all week, they are likely to be without the entire right side of their offensive line. I have this line calculated at Green Bay -10 and I expect this game to be similar to the Raiders’ big losses to the Vikings and Chiefs, so we’re getting great value with Green Bay at -4.5. This is my Pick of the Week.
Green Bay Packers 27 Oakland Raiders 17
Pick against the spread: Green Bay -4.5
Confidence: Pick of the Week