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Continue reading →: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick
New York Jets (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0) Ordinarily, I don’t like picking bad teams as big favorites, as teams that finish 6-10 or worse historically only cover the spread at about a 30% rate as favorite of more than 6 points. The Bills seem to be rebuilding, after trading…
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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0) The Lions made the playoffs last season, but they were arguably the worst team in the league to qualify for the post-season. Their 9-7 record was tied for worst among playoff teams and all 9 wins came against non-playoff teams, making them the…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick
New York Giants (0-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-0) The Cowboys have had success in recent years and appear to have a strong squad again this season, especially with Ezekiel Elliott beating his NFL suspension (for now), but they haven’t had a lot of luck at home recently. They are just…
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Continue reading →: Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Washington Redskins (0-0) The Eagles are one of my favorite sleeper teams for 2017. Their 7-9 record last season was largely the result of a 1-6 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. Their +36 point differential was 10th in the league, ahead of…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0) The Jaguars went just 3-13 last season, but could take a big leap forward this season. Their record last season was largely the result of a -16 turnover margin (3rd worst in the NFL) and a 2-8 record in games decided by 7…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (0-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-0) This line is at 3 in favor of the hometown Green Bay Packers, suggesting these two teams are about even. I have these teams apart by 2 wins in my season previews, with the Seahawks winning 12 games and the Packers winning…
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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (0-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-0) The Panthers had the best record in the league in 2015, but then they had the biggest dropoff in the league in terms of win total in 2016, falling 9 games from 15-1 to 6-10. There are a number of reasons why…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Los Angeles Rams (0-0) I thought about taking the Rams as 3.5 point home underdogs in this game in early August because I was concerned about Andrew Luck’s early season availability and I am kicking myself that I didn’t, now that Luck has been ruled out…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) This line is at 3 in favor of the hometown Cincinnati Bengals, which suggests these two teams are more or less even, but I have the Bengals with 3 more wins than the Ravens in my season preview. The Ravens finished with the…
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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0) Despite losing last season’s Super Bowl in heartbreaking fashion, the Falcons still have a lot of reason to be hopeful. They enter the season with their core intact, with little off-season roster turnover, and are among the most talented teams in the league.…
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