Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick

Seattle Seahawks (0-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-0)

This line is at 3 in favor of the hometown Green Bay Packers, suggesting these two teams are about even. I have these teams apart by 2 wins in my season previews, with the Seahawks winning 12 games and the Packers winning 10, so we’re getting good value with the visitors here. The Packers will always be competitive with Aaron Rodgers, but they’ve lost a talented guard in each of the past two off-seasons with Josh Sitton going to the Bears and TJ Lang going to the Lions and still have issues on defense and at running back. This is far from the best supporting cast Rodgers has had.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks still have issues on the offensive line and uncertainty at running back, but they should have fewer key injuries this season and should once again be one of the best teams in the league, after a slight down year in 2016 (10-5-1). Russell Wilson is healthy with good weapons and the defense is arguably as good as it’s ever been, with Sheldon Richardson coming in via trade from the Jets and Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, and Michael Bennett all ready to go after missing time last season.

The Seahawks are also in a good spot here, as they get the lowly 49ers next week, while the Packers have to turn around and play another tough game in Atlanta, where they figure to be underdogs against the reigning NFC Champs. Underdogs are 97-63 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponents will next be underdogs, including 5-0 ATS before being double digit favorites, which the Seahawks figure to be. The Seahawks should cover this spread and they have a good chance to win the game outright.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Green Bay Packers 23 Upset Pick +145

Pick against the spread: Seattle +3

Confidence: High

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