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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (2-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5) The Cowboys have lost 6 straight games since losing Tony Romo to a broken collarbone week 2. Romo is expected back next week, when he’s first eligible to come off of injured reserve, but it could be too late. It will be…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at New York Giants: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (8-0) at New York Giants (5-4) The Giants have a winning record, but this line might not be high enough at 7.5. The Giants are not nearly as good as their record, ranking 25th in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, largely as a…
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Continue reading →: Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (3-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-4) This game was really tough because there are conflicting trends on each side. On one hand, the Dolphins are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 122-87 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 100-59 ATS when it’s…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (3-5) at Denver Broncos (7-1) The Chiefs only have three wins, while the Broncos have seven, but the Chiefs actually rank higher than the Broncos in rate of moving the chains differential; While the Broncos rank 17th, the Chiefs rank 15th. How can that be? Well, the…
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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (6-2) at Seattle Seahawks (4-4) Despite having 2 losses, the Cardinals rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains differential battle in all 8 games. In their 2 losses, they won the first down battle by a combined 20…
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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings at Oakland Raiders: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (4-4) I love fading significant week-to-week line movements whenever it makes sense, as they tend to be overreactions to one week of play. This line was a pick ‘em a week ago, but now favors Oakland by 3, pretty significant, considering about 23.3% of…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (2-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4) Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger injured his foot last week against the Raiders and, though he’s gotten some limited practice in this week, the injury is typically a multi-week one and he’s not expected to play in this game against Cleveland, ahead of Pittsburgh’s bye…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick
St. Louis Rams (4-4) at Chicago Bears (3-5) The Bears are 7 point underdogs here this week and are expected to be 6 point underdogs next week at home for Denver. That’s not usually a good thing, as 6+ point underdogs are 41-63 ATS before being 6+ point underdogs again,…
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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (2-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-0) The Bengals are one of three remaining 8-0 undefeated teams and rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential. The Texans are a solid team, ranking 16th in rate of moving the chains, but this line, at 11 in favor of the…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) at Baltimore Ravens (2-6) The Jaguars rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential at -5.84%. However, they’ve been a lot better since the first 3 weeks of the season. In their past 5 games, they have a differential of -2.92%. What happened? Well, they got…
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