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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (1-7) at Green Bay Packers (6-2) R-E-L-A-X. If Aaron Rodgers hadn’t said that last year after the Packers lost 2 of 3 games, he definitely would have said it now, after the Packers have lost 2 straight games. Both losses came on the road, against tough opponents, Carolina…
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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (8-0) at Tennessee Titans (2-6) The Panthers got a signature win last week, beating Green Bay 37-29, validating themselves as one of the top teams in the NFL. As a result, the public is all over them as 4.5 point favorites in Tennessee this week. As is usually…
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (4-4) at New York Jets (5-3) This line, 2 in favor of the Jets, suggests that the Bills are the slightly better team. I don’t think that’s true. The Jets rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Bills rank all the way down at…
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Continue reading →: Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick
Tennessee Titans (1-6) at New Orleans Saints (4-4) The Titans get Marcus Mariota back this week after he missed the past 2 weeks with a knee injury. The Titans lost both games without him to fall to 1-6 on the season and moved the chains at a 57.41% rate in…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) at New York Jets (4-3) The Jets were 4-1 and coming off of a 34-20 victory over the Redskins a few weeks ago, but they’ve taken a serious hit since then, losing 2 straight. It’s not as bad as it sounds though, as both losses came on…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (2-5) at San Diego Chargers (2-6) These two teams both only have 2 wins, but the Chargers are significantly better. While the Bears rank 26th in rate of moving the chains differential, the Chargers rank 7th. Obviously that seems weird given their record, but they actually lead the…
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Continue reading →: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) at Dallas Cowboys (2-5) The Eagles are 3 point favorites here in Dallas coming off the bye. Significant road favorites off of a bye tend to do pretty well, as 3+ point road favorites off of the bye are 41-13 ATS since 2002, including 21-5 ATS in…
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Continue reading →: Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick
Oakland Raiders (4-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4) This line, Pittsburgh by 5 at home, suggests that the Steelers are measurably better than the Raiders. The Raiders rank 12th in rate of moving the chains, while the Steelers rank 18th, but that’s largely because the Steelers were without Ben Roethlisberger for…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick
New York Giants (4-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4) The Buccaneers have not had much homefield advantage over the past few years. Since 2009, they are 15-36 at home, getting outscored by an average of 6.10 points per game, as opposed to 17-33 on the road, getting outscored by an…
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Continue reading →: Washington Redskins at New England Patriots: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick
Washington Redskins (3-4) at New England Patriots (7-0) The Patriots are one of four remaining undefeated 7-0 teams, along with Cincinnati, Denver, and Carolina. I don’t see that coming to an end this week, as they’re favored by two touchdowns. They go to New York to face the Giants after…
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