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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (0-8) I’m completely torn on this one. On one hand, the Broncos are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364…
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Continue reading →: St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick
St. Louis Rams (3-5) at Arizona Cardinals (7-1) The Cardinals are the most overrated team in the NFL. Despite having the NFL’s best record at 7-1, the Cardinals rank just 14th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 72.65% rate, as opposed…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars in London: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (6-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) in London Tony Romo is back for the Cowboys this week after missing last week with a back bruise. Given that, we should be getting significant line value with the Cowboys as just 7 point favorites on a neutral field here in London…
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Continue reading →: Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (5-3) at Detroit Lions (6-2) The Dolphins thrust themselves into the contender discussion last week, blowing out a solid San Diego team by the final score of 37-0. They move the chains at a 74.44% rate, as opposed to 68.83% for their opponents, a differential of 5.60% that…
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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) at Carolina Panthers (3-5-1) The Eagles have lost Nick Foles for an extended period of time, but he had not been playing well. He was completing 59.8% of his passes for an average of 6.96 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions and he wasn’t even as good…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (3-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-3) On the season, the Bears have actually played a little bit better, as they rank 13th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 77.22% rate, as opposed to 76.11% for their opponents, a differential…
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Continue reading →: Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) at New York Jets (1-8) This feels like a classic Steeler let down game. Since Mike Tomlin took over as head coach in 2007, the Steelers are just 7-18 ATS as non-divisional road favorites, including 4-15 ATS off of a win, 4-13 ATS as non-divisional road favorites…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick
New York Giants (3-5) at Seattle Seahawks (5-3) The Seahawks have fallen flat at home in their previous 2 home games, losing as big home favorites to the Cowboys and then beating the lowly Raiders by just 6 points last week as 14 point favorites. However, I still really like…
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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (2-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7) The Falcons are coming off of a bye in this game. One of the more powerful trends says that road favorites dominant off of a bye, going 50-21 ATS since 2002, including 24-6 ATS in divisional matchups, like this one here. It…
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Continue reading →: Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick
Tennessee Titans (2-6) at Baltimore Ravens (5-4) The Ravens have lost two straight, but I really like their chances of bouncing back here in a big way for a variety of reasons. For one thing, they’ve historically done very well off of big losses in the John Harbaugh era, going…
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