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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (4-5) at Chicago Bears (3-6) The Bears have been blown out in back-to-back games, losing 51-23 in New England and 55-14 in Green Bay in their past 2 weeks. However, I like their chances of bouncing back here. For one thing, teams usually do well off of back-to-back…
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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (3-6-1) at Atlanta Falcons (3-6) The Panthers are 3-6-1, but they’re even worse than their record suggests. Five of their 6 losses have come by 18 points or more (Green Bay, New Orleans, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia) and their -83 point differential is worse than every team’s but 5…
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (5-4) at Miami Dolphins (5-4) The Bills might be the team with the biggest disparity in terms of their record versus how well they’ve actually played. They may be 5-4, but they’re nowhere near as good as their record. They move the chains at a 65.17% rate, as…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (6-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-3) The public is all over the Seahawks here and most people assume the defending Super Bowl champs will win straight up here in Kansas City. Then why do the odds makers (who always make money in the long run) have them favored…
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Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 11
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
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Continue reading →: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick Results
Last week Against the Spread: 9-4 Straight Up: 9-4 Pick of the Week: 0-1 High Confidence: 1-0 Medium Confidence: 4-2 Low Confidence: 3-0 No Confidence: 1-1 Upset Picks: 1-1 On the season Against the Spread: 91-55-1 (.623) Straight Up: 98-48-1 (.671) Pick of the Week: 6-4 High Confidence: 7-6 Medium…
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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (0-8) I’m completely torn on this one. On one hand, the Broncos are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364…
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Continue reading →: St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick
St. Louis Rams (3-5) at Arizona Cardinals (7-1) The Cardinals are the most overrated team in the NFL. Despite having the NFL’s best record at 7-1, the Cardinals rank just 14th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 72.65% rate, as opposed…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars in London: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (6-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) in London Tony Romo is back for the Cowboys this week after missing last week with a back bruise. Given that, we should be getting significant line value with the Cowboys as just 7 point favorites on a neutral field here in London…
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Continue reading →: Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (5-3) at Detroit Lions (6-2) The Dolphins thrust themselves into the contender discussion last week, blowing out a solid San Diego team by the final score of 37-0. They move the chains at a 74.44% rate, as opposed to 68.83% for their opponents, a differential of 5.60% that…
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