Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) at Oakland Raiders (0-10)

The Chiefs beat the Seahawks last week, but this line still doesn’t reflect how good they are. They rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 77.45% rate, as opposed to 71.38% for their opponents, a differential of 6.07%. It makes sense. In addition to what they did last week, they went into San Diego and won. They went into Buffalo and won. They blew out a solid Miami team in Miami (34-15). They blew out a Patriots team that has looked fantastic since (41-14). They took care of business against the Jets (24-10) and the Rams (31-7). Meanwhile, their three losses came by a combined 19 points and two of them came in Denver and San Francisco. As long as they aren’t overconfident over last week’s win, they should be able to win fairly easily here.

The Raiders, meanwhile, are terrible, moving the chains at a 62.50% rate, as opposed to 74.30% for their opponents, a differential of -11.80%, easily the worst in the NFL (no one else is worse than -8.51%). They should be way more than touchdown underdogs here at home for Kansas City. Speaking of them being home underdogs, that actually puts them in a bad spot, as teams are 30-59 ATS as divisional home underdogs in night games since 1989.

The only reason I’m not that confident is because the Raiders are in a good spot because they’re winless and on a big losing streak. Teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that situation. Teams are 31-15 ATS since 1989 as underdogs with a record of 0-8 or worse, though only 13-12 as home underdogs. On top of that, underdogs with records of 0-5 or worse are 39-19 ATS off of a loss by a touchdown or less, though again only 15-10 ATS as home underdogs. Also, while the Raiders will be overlooked and embarrassed, they aren’t undervalued because the Chiefs are only touchdown favorites here. The Chiefs should be the right side.

Kansas City Chiefs 23 Oakland Raiders 10

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -7

Confidence: Low

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