Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9) at Indianapolis Colts (6-4)
The Jaguars aren’t the worst team in the NFL, as the Raiders are winless at 0-10 and have looked really, really bad in the process, but they’ve still been horrible over the past two seasons. They have covered just 9 of their last 27 games, dating back to week 17 of 2012. Over those 27 games, they lost 17 of them by double digits and could easily make it 18 this week on the road against a very good Indianapolis team. On the season, the Jaguars are moving the chains at a 66.67% rate, as opposed to 72.87% for their opponents, a differential of -6.20% that ranks 30th in the NFL.
The Colts, meanwhile, rank 12th, moving the chains at a 77.30% rate, as opposed to 74.23% for their opponents, a differential of 3.06%. They’ve been even better at home, moving the chains at a 76.63% rate, as opposed to 70.13% for their opponents, a differential of 6.50%. This is nothing new as they are 14-7 ATS at home since 2012, when Chuck Pagano and Andrew Luck came in. They lost last week at home against the Patriots, but that was obviously a much tougher opponent and they typically bounce back very well off of a loss in the Pagano/Luck era, as most good head coach/quarterback combinations do, going 12-1 ATS off of a loss since 2012.
The Jaguars, meanwhile, are in a bad spot with a home game against the Giants up next. Teams are 57-87 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more (the early line is NY Giants -3.5). That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough, important game coming up. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. Here, it’s definitely the latter. I like the Colts a good amount, even as two touchdown favorites.
Indianapolis Colts 38 Jacksonville Jaguars 17
Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -14