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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: 2019 Week 11 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (3-6-1) at San Francisco 49ers (8-1) The 49ers got off to a dominant 7-0 start to the season, winning their first 7 games by a 18.57 points per game, despite only a +4 turnover margin, and leading the league with an incredible +12.75% first down rate differential. However,…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers: 2019 Week 11 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (6-4) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (4-6) in Mexico City The Chargers have gotten off to a disappointing 4-6 start, a year after going 12-4. They’ve been better than their record suggests though. While their six losses have come by just a combined 29 points, with none coming…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2019 Week 11 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (7-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6) The Saints suffered a shocking home loss to the Falcons as 13.5-point home favorites last week, not just losing but losing by the final score of 26-9 in a game in which they lost the first down rate battle by 8.57%.…
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: 2019 Week 11 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (6-3) at Miami Dolphins (2-7) The Dolphins have won back-to-back games after getting off to a horrendous 0-7 start, but they still rank dead last in the NFL in first down rate differential at -8.98%. Even in last week’s win in Indianapolis, they lost the first down rate…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams: 2019 Week 11 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (4-5) at Los Angeles Rams (5-4) A year ago, this was a marquee matchup in the NFC, with both teams going on to win 12+ games. This season, however, both teams are having disappointing seasons. The Bears actually led the NFL in first down rate differential in 2018…
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Continue reading →: Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders: 2019 Week 11 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (0-9) at Oakland Raiders (5-4) The Raiders are 5-4, but they haven’t played as well as that suggests. While their 5 wins have come by a combined 27 points, their 4 losses have come by a combined 59 points, giving them a -32 point differential that ranks 24th…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles: 2019 Week 11 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (8-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) The Patriots suffered their first loss of the season in their last game against the Ravens, as a defense that had allowed just 4 offensive touchdowns through the first 8 games of the season allowed 4 offensive touchdowns in a 38-20 loss…
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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings: 2019 Week 11 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (3-6) at Minnesota Vikings (7-3) The Vikings are in a great spot this week, favored by 10 points at home going into their bye week, as large favorites tend to take care of business at home before a week off. Since 2002, home favorites of 6+ are 49-17…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions: 2019 Week 11 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (5-4) at Detroit Lions (3-5-1) The Lions will be without quarterback Matt Stafford for the second straight week, but he’s not their only significant injury situation. The Lions will also be without defensive lineman Da’Shawn Hand, right tackle Ricky Wagner, and could be without safety Tracy Walker, who…
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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens: 2019 Week 11 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (6-3) at Baltimore Ravens (7-2) In a key matchup in the AFC, the Ravens enter one game better in the standings than the Texans, but the Texans have arguably the more impressive resume. These two teams are about even in first down rate differential, with the Ravens ranking…
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