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Continue reading →: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0) This is one of the games where I just don’t have a strong lean either way. The Steelers are arguably the most complete team in the NFL, while the Browns are one of the worst, but this line is right about where it’s…
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Continue reading →: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick
New York Jets (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0) Ordinarily, I don’t like picking bad teams as big favorites, as teams that finish 6-10 or worse historically only cover the spread at about a 30% rate as favorite of more than 6 points. The Bills seem to be rebuilding, after trading…
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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0) The Lions made the playoffs last season, but they were arguably the worst team in the league to qualify for the post-season. Their 9-7 record was tied for worst among playoff teams and all 9 wins came against non-playoff teams, making them the…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick
New York Giants (0-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-0) The Cowboys have had success in recent years and appear to have a strong squad again this season, especially with Ezekiel Elliott beating his NFL suspension (for now), but they haven’t had a lot of luck at home recently. They are just…
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Continue reading →: Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Washington Redskins (0-0) The Eagles are one of my favorite sleeper teams for 2017. Their 7-9 record last season was largely the result of a 1-6 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. Their +36 point differential was 10th in the league, ahead of…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0) The Jaguars went just 3-13 last season, but could take a big leap forward this season. Their record last season was largely the result of a -16 turnover margin (3rd worst in the NFL) and a 2-8 record in games decided by 7…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (0-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-0) This line is at 3 in favor of the hometown Green Bay Packers, suggesting these two teams are about even. I have these teams apart by 2 wins in my season previews, with the Seahawks winning 12 games and the Packers winning…
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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (0-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-0) The Panthers had the best record in the league in 2015, but then they had the biggest dropoff in the league in terms of win total in 2016, falling 9 games from 15-1 to 6-10. There are a number of reasons why…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Los Angeles Rams (0-0) I thought about taking the Rams as 3.5 point home underdogs in this game in early August because I was concerned about Andrew Luck’s early season availability and I am kicking myself that I didn’t, now that Luck has been ruled out…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) This line is at 3 in favor of the hometown Cincinnati Bengals, which suggests these two teams are more or less even, but I have the Bengals with 3 more wins than the Ravens in my season preview. The Ravens finished with the…
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