Miami Dolphins (1-0) at New York Jets (0-2)
Both of these teams are in tough spots here this week. The Dolphins travel to London to face the Saints next week and teams understandably seem to struggle before London trips, going 11-21 ATS all-time. Making matters worse, they had to play on the west coast last week and had their home opener moved to week 11 because of Hurricane Irma. They’re in the middle of a stretch where they have to go to Los Angeles, New York, and London before they get to play a home game back in Miami.
The Jets, meanwhile, could be sluggish after travelling to Buffalo and Oakland to start their season. Teams that have their home opener week 3 are 26-53 ATS since 1989. Miami’s travel schedule might not catch up with them for another week or so and the Jets have had a rough start to their season both in terms of travel and on field performance.They have allowed 16 more first downs and 6 more offensive touchdowns than they’ve gained so far this season, both worst in the NFL. They’re arguably the least talented team in a decade.
It’s hard to pick the Jets under any circumstances right now, but I do think this line is a little high at 6.5. I have it calculated at 5, purely because I don’t think the Dolphins are good enough to be favored by this many points against anyone. They won last week in Los Angeles against the Chargers, but that’s because the Chargers blew numerous chances to win it. That being said, I have no interest in betting on them right now unless we’re getting serious line value. This could easily be a 7 or 10 point Miami victory, even if they don’t play very well. This is a no confidence pick.
Miami Dolphins 24 New York Jets 20
Pick against the spread: NY Jets +6.5