New York Giants (0-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)
Last week, when I looked at the early lines, Philadelphia -3 at home for the Giants was one of my favorites. The Eagles are legitimately one of the most talented teams in the entire league and have a great chance to win the NFC East, while the Giants are much more of a middling team, yet that line suggested these two teams were about equal. Needless to say, I am kicking myself for not locking that in last week because the Giants lost by 14 at home for the Lions on Monday Night Football and the line has subsequently jumped to 6.
We’re still getting some line value with the Eagles, who are still one of the better teams in the league, despite a loss in Kansas City last week (in a game in which the Eagles had 27 first downs to 16 for Kansas City). I have this line calculated at 7.5. However, we lost a ton of value with the line movement. The Giants were not as bad as the final score looked (24-10), as the Lions managed just 12 first downs and scored 10 points on a punt return and a 56-yard field goal, despite the fact that the Giants were without cornerback Janoris Jenkins and middle linebacker BJ Goodson.
Both Jenkins and Goodson are expected to be out again, but the Eagles are without cornerback Ronald Darby and could be without safety Rodney McLeod, which would be a big loss because backups Jaylen Watkins and Corey Graham are also out. Odell Beckham should also be closer to 100% this week, which will help this offense, and their running game could be better if Orleans Darkwa starts taking more carries away from Paul Perkins. The Eagles should still win this game by a touchdown or so, but they’re not worth betting on given how high this line is.
Philadelphia Eagles 24 New York Giants 17
Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6