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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (12-3) at Miami Dolphins (5-10) The Patriots are traditionally very good off of a loss, going 34-17 ATS all-time off a loss with Tom Brady as the starting quarterback. However, I’m going to go against them this week for three reasons. For one, teams are 81-105 ATS…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (5-10) at Cincinnati Bengals (11-4) I’m completely torn on this one. On one hand, the Ravens are in a good spot because divisional road underdogs are 57-31 ATS in a same season regular season rematch against a team they previously lost to as divisional home favorites, since 2002.…
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Continue reading →: Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick
Washington Redskins (8-7) at Dallas Cowboys (4-11) Ordinarily, I would be all over the Redskins as 3.5 point underdogs here in Dallas, for three reasons. The first is that the Cowboys tend to struggle as hosts, particularly as home favorites, going 8-25 ATS as home favorites since 2010. The second…
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Continue reading →: San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick
San Diego Chargers (4-11) at Denver Broncos (11-4) The Chargers are just 4-11, one of the worst records in the NFL, but rank 11th in rate of moving the chains differential. How can that be? Well, their record is largely the result of a 3-7 record in games decided by…
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Continue reading →: St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick
St. Louis Rams (7-8) at San Francisco 49ers (4-11) The Rams have gone from being favored by 2.5 points on the early line last week to being favored by 3.5 points this week. That might not seem like a huge difference, but about 1 in 6 games are decided by…
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Continue reading →: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick
New York Jets (10-5) at Buffalo Bills (7-8) I really wish we were still getting points with the Jets, like we were last week, when they were underdogs of 1.5 in Buffalo on the early line. The line hasn’t moved to the opposite 3 yet, but the Jets are now…
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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (10-5) at Green Bay Packers (10-5) The Packers were favored by 5.5 over the Vikings last week on the early line, but now are favored by just 3, a significant line movement considering both 3 and 4 are key numbers. While about 3 in 10 games are decided…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (6-9) at Atlanta Falcons (8-7) The Falcons delivered the Carolina Panthers their first loss of the season last week, winning 20-13 at home as 7 point underdogs. It was certainly a legitimate win, as they won the rate of moving the chains differential battle 82.14% to 73.08%,…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-10) at Houston Texans (8-7) I ordinarily never do this, but I need to lock this one in now. If the Bengals beat the Broncos tonight, the Texans clinch the AFC South. It might sound weird, but a Cincinnati victory over the Broncos clinches the tiebreaker for the…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (4-10) at Buffalo Bills (6-8) Dallas’ season effectively ended last week with a home loss to the New York Jets, but the Bills’ season effectively ended last week too, with a road loss in Washington to the Redskins. Dallas hasn’t been a very good team all season, as…
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