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Continue reading →: Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (9-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-9) This line was a touchdown in favor of the visiting Bengals last week, but since has moved to 9.5. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, but I think…
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Continue reading →: Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (4-7) at New England Patriots (10-1) The Eagles have lost their last 2 games by a combined score of 90-31, dropping them out of 1st place in the weak NFC East and raising questions about whether or not head coach Chip Kelly will return next season. However, the…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (3-8) at Chicago Bears (5-6) The 49ers have been the worst team in the NFL, by a wide margin, according to rate of moving the chains differential. They have a -11.74% differential and no other team in the NFL is worse than -6.29%. While the 49ers have…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (6-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) Matt Hasselbeck is 4-0 as the Colts’ starter and the Colts have moved the chains at a 73.60% rate in his 4 starts, as opposed to 69.66% in Andrew Luck’s 7 starts. Certainly getting Luck back healthy for the stretch run and playoffs…
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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (6-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6) The Falcons started the season a surprising 5-0, but have since fallen back to earth, losing 5 of 6, putting them in a fight to even make the playoffs. Considering 3 of those 5 wins were by a touchdown or less and…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (6-5) at Minnesota Vikings (8-3) The Seahawks are in a great spot here this week. While the Vikings have to play arguably the toughest game of their season in 4 days on the road on Thursday Night Football (in Arizona against the Cardinals), the Seahawks have an easy…
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Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (7-4) at Detroit Lions (4-7) After an impressive 6-0 start, the Packers have lost 4 of their last 5 games, including two straight home losses, to the Chicago Bears last week and to these Detroit Lions three weeks ago. The line has really adjusted in the last…
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Continue reading →: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick Results
Week 12 Straight Up: 9-7 Against the Spread: 10-6 Pick of the Week: 0-1 High Confidence: 1-0 Medium Confidence: 5-1 Low Confidence: 3-3 No Confidence: 1-1 Upset Picks: 2-2 2015 Straight Up: 103-73 Against the Spread: 76-96-4 Pick of the Week: 5-7 High Confidence: 9-8 Medium Confidence: 23-24-1 Low Confidence:…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (3-7) at Cleveland Browns (2-8) This has been the season from hell for the Ravens. After going 11-5, winning a playoff game, and finishing the season 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential a year ago, the Ravens lost outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, defensive tackle Haloti Ngata,…
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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (7-3) at Atlanta Falcons (6-4) The Falcons started the season a surprising 5-0, but have since fallen back to earth, losing 4 of 5, putting them in a fight to even make the playoffs. Considering 3 of those 5 wins were by a touchdown or less and the…
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