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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (5-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-5) This line was a field goal a week ago on the early line, but has since jumped to 6. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, but, in…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (4-6) at Houston Texans (5-5) The Texans won last week, 24-17 at home against the Jets, to improve their record to 5-5. After a 1-4 start, the Texans are right in the thick of the playoff race in the AFC. Last week’s win came as home underdogs…
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Continue reading →: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (4-6) at New York Jets (5-5) This might sound weird considering they’re 5-5 and have struggled on offense, but the Jets actually rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential. It makes more sense when you consider two things. One, while their offense has really struggled, ranking…
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Continue reading →: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (5-5) Matt Hasselbeck is 3-0 as the Colts’ starter and the Colts have moved the chains at a 72.04% rate in his 3 starts, as opposed to 69.66% in Andrew Luck’s 7 starts. Certainly getting Luck back healthy for the stretch run and…
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Continue reading →: San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick
San Diego Chargers (2-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-6) The Chargers’ 2-8 record is tied for the worst in the NFL, but they have played better than their record. Their defense has been horrendous, ranking 29th in rate of moving the chains allowed, but their offense ranks 5th, as quarterback Philip…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick
New York Giants (5-5) at Washington Redskins (4-6) I’m torn on this one. On one hand, the Giants have always been a very good road team in the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era, since 2004, going 60-39 ATS on the road over that time period, including 51-32 ATS as underdogs or…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at Denver Broncos: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (10-0) at Denver Broncos (8-2) This line was 5.5 a week ago on the early line, in favor of New England in Denver, but now New England is only favored by a field goal. I typically like to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to…
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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (8-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-7) The Cardinals were favored by just 8 points in this game against the 49ers on the early line last week, but the line has since moved to 10. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be…
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Continue reading →: St. Louis Rams at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick
St. Louis Rams (4-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-2) The Bengals were favored by just 7 points in this game against the Rams on the early line last week, but the line has since moved to 9.5. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be…
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Continue reading →: Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick
Oakland Raiders (4-6) at Tennessee Titans (2-8) The Raiders have lost 3 straight games since their 4-3 start, as player losses have caught up with them. They lost defensive end Justin Tuck for the season to injury before their bye week and have been without him for the past 5…
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