New York Giants (5-7) at Miami Dolphins (4-8)
The Giants host the Panthers next week (against whom they’ll be 3.5 point home underdogs), so they could easily be caught looking forward to that game this week, when they face the Dolphins in Miami, a game in which they’re favored by 2.5. Road favorites like the Giants are 32-46 ATS since 2008 before being home underdogs. On top of that, teams are 80-125 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs and 45-84 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, since 2012. Combining the two, teams are 55-82 ATS as road favorites before being 3+ point home underdogs since 1989.
We’re also getting a little bit of line value with the Dolphins. While the Dolphins rank 29th in rate of moving the chains, the Giants aren’t much better at 26th, as they’ve been overly reliant on winning the turnover margin this season. Their turnover margin on the season is great at +10, but there’s almost no correlation between a team’s turnover margin one week and its turnover margin the next week. You just can’t rely on that every week. Despite that, the public is all over the Giants, probably because they don’t know that. The only thing stopping me from being confident in the Dolphins is the fact that the Giants are 60-40 ATS on the road in the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era (2004). If the line moves to a field goal, I’d consider putting money on the Dolphins.
Miami Dolphins 17 New York Giants 16 Upset Pick +115
Pick against the spread: Miami +2.5