New Orleans Saints (4-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Saints 26-19 as 10 point underdogs in New Orleans earlier this year. However, there are two reasons why the Saints could easily get revenge. For one, they’re in a great spot as divisional road underdogs are 54-31 ATS in a same season regular season rematch against a team they previously lost to as divisional home favorites, since 2002. Revenge is far from uncommon in divisional matchups similar to this one. Secondly, the Buccaneers have never had much of a homefield advantage, as they are 18-35 ATS at home since 2009.
The Buccaneers are also in a bad spot, as they are expected to be road underdogs in St. Louis next week, while the Saints will be home favorites against the Lions. Favorites (like the Buccaneers) are 98-167 ATS before being underdogs (as they will be next week), if their opponent will next be favorites (like the Saints will be next week). However, the Buccaneers are only one point underdogs in St. Louis on the early line next week, so they could easily up being road favorites and the logic doesn’t really hold up either way because the Rams aren’t good enough for the Buccaneers to get caught looking forward to them. However, the Buccaneers do have to play again in 4 days on Thursday Night Football and that hurts them, as favorites are 47-70 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. With the Buccaneers favored by 5 points and about 3 in 10 games decided by 4 or fewer points, I’m confident putting money on the Saints.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 New Orleans Saints 30
Pick against the spread: New Orleans +5