Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) at Oakland Raiders (5-6)
This line was 2.5 in favor of the Chiefs on the early line last week, but has since moved to a field goal. It might not seem like it, but, considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal exactly, it’s a significant line movement. I like to fade significant line movements whenever it makes sense and I think it makes sense here. The Raiders are missing key players, as defensive end Justin Tuck went down for the season week 5, outside linebacker Aldon Smith got suspended for a year week 11, and center Rodney Hudson will miss his 3rd game in the last 4 weeks. Those were all key players to their hot early start
However, the Chiefs are shorthanded as well, missing outside linebacker Justin Houston (one of the top defensive players in the league), center Mitch Morse, and safety Husain Abdullah. The Chiefs rank 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Raiders rank 15th, so it doesn’t make a ton of sense that the Chiefs are favored by a whole field goal in Oakland. Despite that, the public is all over the Chiefs. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense because the public always loses money in the long run and I’d be able to fade the public and a significant line movement by taking the Raiders here. That certainly makes sense and I’m taking the field goal with confidence.
Oakland Raiders 19 Kansas City Chiefs 17 Upset Pick +120
Pick against the spread: Oakland +3