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Continue reading →: Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (3-3) at Carolina Panthers (5-0) The Panthers are 5-0 and rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential, but they’re only favored by 35 points here. That’s reasonable though, considering the Eagles rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential and considering the Eagles are in…
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Continue reading →: Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-5) Ben Roethlisberger has missed the last 3 games with injury, but he practiced some this week and has travelled to Kansas City for this game. He’s not expected to play, but the possibility that he is able to go is worth thinking…
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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (3-2) at Detroit Lions (1-5) Both of these two teams are missing key defensive players for this one. The Vikings will be without Sharrif Floyd, a 3rd year defensive tackle who was one of the best defensive tackles in the NFL in 2014 and who has continued that…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (2-3) at New York Giants (3-3) The Giants have never really had a very good homefield advantage, at least not since 2004, the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era. They are 53-42 (45-50 ATS) at home over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.64…
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars in London: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) in London The Bills lost at home 34-21 to the Bengals last week and are in a mess of a situation injury wise, missing quarterback Tyrod Taylor, running back Karlos Williams, wide receiver Sammy Watkins, wide receiver Percy Harvin, and defensive tackle Kyle…
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Continue reading →: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) at Washington Redskins (2-4) The Redskins are going into a bye here, but that’s not a good thing, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Big home favorites (6+) typically do very well before a bye (59-20 ATS since 2002), but, for whatever reason, small home favorites…
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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (5-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-4) On paper, this line is too high at 6.5. The Falcons are good, a 5-1 team that ranks 8th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’re coming off of a loss in New Orleans last week, but now they’re in their 2nd…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (1-5) at Arizona Cardinals (4-2) I’m pretty torn on this one. On one hand, the Ravens are in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 119-86 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 97-59 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically,…
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Continue reading →: Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick
Oakland Raiders (2-3) at San Diego Chargers (2-4) The Chargers are 2-4, but they’re much better than their record, as they rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’ve only had a negative rate of moving the chains differential in 2 of 6 games, in Cincinnati and in…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (2-4) at Indianapolis Colts (3-3) The Colts are in a bunch of spots that they’ve been historically good in since Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano arrived in 2012. The Colts are 19-9 ATS at home (including a cover last week as 9.5 point home underdogs in a…
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