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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (3-5) at Denver Broncos (7-1) The Chiefs only have three wins, while the Broncos have seven, but the Chiefs actually rank higher than the Broncos in rate of moving the chains differential; While the Broncos rank 17th, the Chiefs rank 15th. How can that be? Well, the…
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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (6-2) at Seattle Seahawks (4-4) Despite having 2 losses, the Cardinals rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains differential battle in all 8 games. In their 2 losses, they won the first down battle by a combined 20…
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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings at Oakland Raiders: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (4-4) I love fading significant week-to-week line movements whenever it makes sense, as they tend to be overreactions to one week of play. This line was a pick ‘em a week ago, but now favors Oakland by 3, pretty significant, considering about 23.3% of…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (2-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4) Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger injured his foot last week against the Raiders and, though he’s gotten some limited practice in this week, the injury is typically a multi-week one and he’s not expected to play in this game against Cleveland, ahead of Pittsburgh’s bye…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick
St. Louis Rams (4-4) at Chicago Bears (3-5) The Bears are 7 point underdogs here this week and are expected to be 6 point underdogs next week at home for Denver. That’s not usually a good thing, as 6+ point underdogs are 41-63 ATS before being 6+ point underdogs again,…
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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (2-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-0) The Bengals are one of three remaining 8-0 undefeated teams and rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential. The Texans are a solid team, ranking 16th in rate of moving the chains, but this line, at 11 in favor of the…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) at Baltimore Ravens (2-6) The Jaguars rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential at -5.84%. However, they’ve been a lot better since the first 3 weeks of the season. In their past 5 games, they have a differential of -2.92%. What happened? Well, they got…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (1-7) at Green Bay Packers (6-2) R-E-L-A-X. If Aaron Rodgers hadn’t said that last year after the Packers lost 2 of 3 games, he definitely would have said it now, after the Packers have lost 2 straight games. Both losses came on the road, against tough opponents, Carolina…
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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (8-0) at Tennessee Titans (2-6) The Panthers got a signature win last week, beating Green Bay 37-29, validating themselves as one of the top teams in the NFL. As a result, the public is all over them as 4.5 point favorites in Tennessee this week. As is usually…
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (4-4) at New York Jets (5-3) This line, 2 in favor of the Jets, suggests that the Bills are the slightly better team. I don’t think that’s true. The Jets rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Bills rank all the way down at…
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