St. Louis Rams (4-3) at Minnesota Vikings (5-2)
The Vikings rank higher than the Rams in rate of moving the chains differential, 16th vs.23rd. However, I’m going with the Rams here this week on the road, for a few reasons. For one, the Vikings have had an easier schedule than the Rams, only playing one team that is .500 or better. The Rams, meanwhile, have faced 4, beating the Seahawks and the Cardinals, but losing to the Steelers and the Packers. The Rams also have fewer injuries, only missing defensive end Chris Long, while the Vikings are missing defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd and middle linebacker Eric Kendricks.
The Rams are also in a way better spot. While the Vikings go to Oakland next week, where they are expected to be 1.5 point underdogs, the Rams host the Bears, against whom they’re expected to be favored by 7.5 points. Teams are 166-94 ATS as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. On top of that, teams are 28-48 ATS as home favorites off of a win by 1-3 points as favorites, since 2008. The Vikings won by a field goal as road favorites in Chicago last week.
I’m not confident enough in the Rams to put money on them because this line has shifted from 3 to 1.5 in the past week, a bigger deal than people realize because close to 1 in 6 games is decided by a field goal. In spite of that, the public is on the underdog, part of the reason why this line has dropped and we’ve lost line value. However, I do think the Rams should win this one outright. These are comparable football teams and the Rams are in a way better spot.
St. Louis Rams 16 Minnesota Vikings 13 Upset Pick +105
Pick against the spread: St. Louis +1.5