Washington Redskins (3-4) at New England Patriots (7-0)
The Patriots are one of four remaining undefeated 7-0 teams, along with Cincinnati, Denver, and Carolina. I don’t see that coming to an end this week, as they’re favored by two touchdowns. They go to New York to face the Giants after this one, a game in which they’re expected to be favored by 6.5 points on the road, according to the early line. Teams are 69-49 ATS since 2012 before being 4+ point road favorites, 42-29 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites, and 28-13 ATS before being 7+ point road favorites, over that same time period. In addition, favorites of 6+ are 78-39 ATS before being favored by 6+ since 2012. Without any real distractions on the horizon, the Patriots have a good chance to win big and cover this big spread.
The Patriots should be the right side, but this line is too high for me to be too confident in them, especially with the public all over them. The Patriots are obviously a very good team, ranking 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Redskins aren’t awful, ranking 15th. They’re also way healthier than they have been really all season coming out of the bye. One of the most banged up teams in the league in the first half of the season, the Redskins get top wide receiver DeSean Jackson, slot cornerback DeAngelo Hall, starting center Kory Lichtensteiger, and possibly top cornerback Chris Culliver back this week and are close to full strength. The Patriots, meanwhile, are still without top pass rusher Jabaal Sheard and are down to their 4th offensive tackle, with both Nate Solder and backup Marcus Cannon out. This should be a blowout, but I can’t be confident in the 14.
New England Patriots 34 Washington Redskins 17
Pick against the spread: New England -14