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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-2) A week ago on the early line, the Cardinals were favored by a field goal on the road in this game in Carolina. At that number, I would have liked the Panthers a lot. The Cardinals were at the top of my overrated…
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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (2-1) vs. New Orleans Saints (1-2) in London Typically, the rule of thumb in international games is to take the favorite, as the better team tends to be better equipped to deal with playing a game after an unusual week, going 26-14 ATS all-time. That should be especially…
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Continue reading →: Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (3-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2) The Dolphins are 3-0, so it may be surprising to see them as 4-point underdogs in Cincinnati against a 1-2 Bengals team, especially since about 30% of games are decided by 4 points or fewer. However, the Bengals could also easily be 3-0.…
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Continue reading →: 2022 Week 3 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week NE +3 vs. BAL High Confidence TB -1 vs. GB Medium Confidence CLE -4.5 vs. PIT ARZ +3.5 vs. LAR CAR +3 vs. NO KC -5.5 @ IND HOU +3 @ CHI SEA PK vs. ATL Low Confidence NYJ +6 vs. CIN NYG -1 vs. DAL…
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Continue reading →: Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers: 2022 Week 3 NFL Pick
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-1) This game is tough to predict because even as of Sunday morning we don’t know the status of Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, who is dealing with a rib injury suffered in last week’s game. Herbert stayed in the game last week and…
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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: 2022 Week 3 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (1-1) at New York Giants (2-0) The Giants are 2-0, but they haven’t been that impressive. Both of their wins have been close against below average opponents, with a combined margin of victory of 4 points against the Titans and Panthers, and their win over the Panthers was…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2022 Week 3 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Rams (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (1-1) Going into the season, I considered the Cardinals among the most overrated teams in the league and a likely candidate to regress. They went 11-6 last season, but needed a +12 turnover margin to get to that record, which is not predictive,…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: 2022 Week 3 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (1-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-1) This is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week. This line shifted from favoring the Vikings by 8 points on the early line last week to now only favoring them by 6 points and ordinarily I would like to fade that…
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Continue reading →: Las Vegas Raiders at Tennessee Titans: 2022 Week 3 NFL Pick
Las Vegas Raiders (0-2) at Tennessee Titans (0-2) Both of these teams made the post-season last year and now are essentially fighting for their playoff lives, seeking to avoid a 0-3 start. They may have identical records, but the Raiders are definitely better positioned going forward. Both of the Raiders…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts: 2022 Week 3 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1-1) The Colts have gotten off to a 0-1-1 start, but they still rank 17th in overall efficiency, with their biggest problem thus far being a -4 turnover margin, which is not predictive week-to-week. However, they have faced one of the easiest schedules…
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