New York Giants (3-1) vs. Green Bay Packers (3-1) vs. London

The Giants are 3-1, but they haven’t been overly impressive, with all of their wins being close and their schedule being one of the easiest in the league thus far. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Giants rank just 24th, suggesting their record is largely the result of their level of competition. This week, the Giants’ level of competition jumps significantly, with a matchup against the Green Bay Packers, who are also 3-1, but have been more impressive in doing so, ranking 8th in schedule adjusted efficiency, while also holding a significant edge in my roster rankings. This is a neutral site game in London, but the better team tends to be at even more of an advantage in international games, with favorites covering at 65% rate all-time. 

Unfortunately, we’re not getting great line value with the Packers, as the public and oddsmakers don’t believe in the Giants either, leading to the Packers being favored by 8 points on a neutral field. My roster rankings give the Packers a 10-point edge, so we’re getting some line value with them even at -8, but I’m not sure it’s quite enough for them to be worth betting, even in a good spot. That would change if Leonard Williams missed another game for the Giants, but it seems like he’s more likely than not to return from a 2-game absence this week, which would be a big re-addition for a struggling Giants defense. This is a low confidence pick for now, but I would change my mind if Williams didn’t play.

Update: Williams is out, so I am increasing the confidence on this game.

Green Bay Packers 26 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -8

Confidence: Medium