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Continue reading →: Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers: 2021 Week 11 NFL Pick
Washington Football Team (3-6) at Carolina Panthers (5-5) SInce cutting Cam Newton at the start of the 2020 off-season, the Panthers have paid Teddy Bridgewater 31 million for one season of decent play, before salary dumping him on the Broncos in a trade that netted Carolina just a sixth round…
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Continue reading →: Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns: 2021 Week 11 NFL Pick
Detroit Lions (0-8-1) at Cleveland Browns (5-5) Ordinarily, this would be a look ahead spot for the Browns, who have a much tougher game next week in Baltimore, after this game against the winless Lions. Favorites of a touchdown or more cover at just a 41.5% rate all-time before facing…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles: 2021 Week 11 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (5-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-6) I have thought the Eagles are underrated for several weeks and, despite their blowout win in Denver as 2.5-point underdogs last week, they remain underrated. They are just 4-6, but they have a +26 point differential that ranks 12th in the NFL,…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills: 2021 Week 11 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (5-5) at Buffalo Bills (6-3) The Bills don’t have the best record in the league at 6-3, but they lead the league in point differential by a wide margin at +145, as all three of their losses have come by just one score, while their six wins have…
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Continue reading →: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2021 Week 11 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (3-6) at New York Jets (2-7) One thing I like to do is go against significant week-to-week line movements as, barring injuries, they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play. This game is a great example. A week ago, the Jets were favored by…
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Continue reading →: Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders: 2021 Week 11 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (5-4) Both of these teams are 5-4, but the Bengals hold a significant edge in point differential, +33 vs. -20. That normally would suggest that the Bengals are the better team, but that doesn’t take into account strength of schedule, which Cincinnati has…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons: 2021 Week 11 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (6-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-5) These two teams had very different weeks last week, with the Patriots beating the Browns by 38 and the Falcons losing to the Cowboys by 40. Typically, a team who gets blown out fares better the following week against the spread than…
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Continue reading →: 2021 Week 10 NFL Picks
Pick of the Week PHI +2.5 @ DEN High Confidence Picks DET +8.5 @ PIT SF +4 vs. LAR Medium Confidence Picks MIA +7.5 vs. BAL TB -9.5 @ WAS DAL -8.5 vs. ATL Low Confidence Picks CLE +2.5 @ NE SEA +3.5 @ GB TEN -3 vs. NO CAR…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers: 2021 Week 10 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Rams (7-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-5) The 49ers are just 3-5, but their efficiency ratings are much better than their record, especially when adjusted for their above average schedule. Overall, they rank 7th, 7th, and 13th on offense, defensive, and special teams efficiency, which is more predictive…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers: 2021 Week 10 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (3-5) at Green Bay Packers (7-2) The Packers get Aaron Rodgers back from a one-game absence this week and they are 7-1 with him this season, but they have more reason to be concerned than it seems. Rodgers is returning, but they remain without three of their best…
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