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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (1-0) at Carolina Panthers (1-0) Probably the most surprising week one result was the Saints not only upsetting the Packers as 3.5-point underdogs, but blowing them out by a final score of 38-3, the most lopsided result of the week. Unsurprisingly, that led to the biggest line…
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Continue reading →: Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick
Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-1) The Chiefs won last week, but they had a significantly lower first down rate (42.11% vs. 34.43%) and yards per play (8.16 vs. 6.51) than their opponent, winning primarily because of the turnover margin, which is a significantly less predictive metric. However,…
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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (1-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-1) The Browns lost week one, but they were probably the most impressive team to lose a game, as they went on the road and outperformed the Chiefs in more predictive metrics like first down rate (42.11% vs. 34.43%) and yards per play (8.16…
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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (0-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) The Buccaneers nearly lost at home to the Cowboys week one, but they also won that game despite losing the turnover margin by three, which only happens about 11.3% of the time. Turnover margin is one of the least predictable metrics week-to-week…
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Continue reading →: Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick
Tennessee Titans (0-1) at Seattle Seahawks (1-0) This game has one of the biggest week-to-week line movements of any game this week, with the Seahawks moving from 3.5-point favorites on the early line last week to 6.5-point favorites this week. Normally, I like to fade significant line movements like that…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Rams (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1) The Colts weren’t much of a match for the Seahawks week one, but the Seahawks are one of the most complete teams in the league and the Colts were at far less than full health. I was hoping they would be healthier…
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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (0-1) at Arizona Cardinals (1-0) This is one of several games this week where I would have liked the early line a lot more, as the Cardinals were favored by a field goal a week ago and now have moved to 3.5-point favorites, a big deal given that…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at New York Jets: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (0-1) at New York Jets (0-1) The Patriots were my Pick of the Week last week and lost by 1 point as 3-point favorites, but the peripheral numbers show that the Patriots were the more efficient team, as they had the higher first down rate (33.33% vs.…
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Continue reading →: Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) at Chicago Bears (0-1) I thought the Bengals could be a little bit of an underrated team this season if Joe Burrow could return to form after his ACL tear because the rest of this team is noticeably improved over the past two years. The Bengals got…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Washington Football Team: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick
New York Giants (0-1) at Washington Football Team (0-1) Washington came into the season with some significant potential. They returned almost everyone from one of the best defenses in the league a year ago and made noticeable upgrades in free agency at their two biggest positions of weakness, signing quarterback…
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