New England Patriots (12-3) at Miami Dolphins (5-10)
The Patriots are traditionally very good off of a loss, going 34-17 ATS all-time off a loss with Tom Brady as the starting quarterback. However, I’m going to go against them this week for three reasons. For one, teams are 81-105 ATS since 1989 off of a road loss in overtime, 60-85 ATS if we exclude road underdogs in their 2nd of two road games. The Patriots lost in New York against the Jets in overtime last week. Two, the Patriots also traditionally struggle to cover the spread as double digit favorites, going 9-16 ATS when favored by 10 or more points since 2008.
The Patriots are favored by too many points anyway, the third reason I’m going against them. The Patriots are favored by 10 points. They rank 6th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 31st for the Dolphins, but they are so banged up right now. They’re not the same team that started the season 10-0 and won’t resemble that team until maybe their first playoff game in 2 weeks. Defensive tackle Dominique Easley, running back LeGarrette Blount, left tackle Nate Solder, and running back Dion Lewis are all out for the season, while right tackle Sebastian Vollmer, defensive end Chandler Jones, linebacker Dont’a Hightower, linebacker Jonathan Freeny, and wide receiver Julian Edelman have already been ruled out for this one. On top of that, safety Devin McCourty, wide receiver Danny Amendola, and safety Patrick Chung are all likely going to be game-time decisions. I can’t be confident going against New England, but I’m taking Miami.
New England Patriots 24 Miami Dolphins 16
Pick against the spread: Miami +10