Dallas Cowboys (4-10) at Buffalo Bills (6-8)
Dallas’ season effectively ended last week with a home loss to the New York Jets, but the Bills’ season effectively ended last week too, with a road loss in Washington to the Redskins. Dallas hasn’t been a very good team all season, as they rank 27th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’ve been especially bad in the games that quarterback Tony Romo has missed, moving the chains at a 66.89% rate in those 10 games, as opposed to 72.80% in the 4 games he played. Now they’re on their 4th starting quarterback of the year, as Matt Cassel has been benched for 2012 undrafted free agent Kellen Moore, who was underwhelming in relief of Cassel last week. Moore also won’t have the services of wide receiver Dez Bryant in this one, as he’s listed as doubtful. Never 100% after returning from a week 1 broken foot, Bryant is expected to be shut down for the rest of the regular season.
This line is pretty big for the Bills to cover though, considering they rank just 20th in rate of moving the chains differential and have their own injuries. Defensive tackle Kyle Williams and cornerback Stephon Gilmore obviously remain out, as they’re on injured reserve, and linebacker Nigel Bradham could join them on injured reserve shortly, as he’ll miss his 4th straight game with an ankle injury this week. On offense, they’re short on skill position players with running back LeSean McCoy, wide receiver Robert Woods, and tight end Charles Clay all out with injuries. Given that, it’s a lot to ask them to cover a 6.5 point spread against anyone other than the absolute worst teams, which I don’t think the Cowboys are. The Cowboys also typically travel well and are 19-11 ATS as road underdogs since 2010. It’s not enough to put money on Dallas, but I’m going with them.
Buffalo Bills 17 Dallas Cowboys 13
Pick against the spread: Dallas +6.5