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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (7-0) at Indianapolis Colts (3-5) The Broncos are in a good spot this week, as favorites of 6+ with another easy game on deck, hosting Kansas City next week. Favorites of 6+ are 78-39 ATS before being favored by 6+ since 2012, as significantly superior teams tend to…
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Continue reading →: St. Louis Rams at Minnesota Vikings: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick
St. Louis Rams (4-3) at Minnesota Vikings (5-2) The Vikings rank higher than the Rams in rate of moving the chains differential, 16th vs.23rd. However, I’m going with the Rams here this week on the road, for a few reasons. For one, the Vikings have had an easier schedule than…
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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (6-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-6) The Falcons have been exposed a little bit in recent weeks. They needed overtime to beat the Redskins in Atlanta, lost in New Orleans, only won by a field goal in Tennessee, who was starting a backup quarterback, and then lost at…
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Continue reading →: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (3-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-4) The bye came at the perfect time for the Buffalo Bills, who limped into the bye with two straight losses, including a loss in London to the Jaguars, in a game in which they were missing starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor, talented backup running…
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Continue reading →: Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick
Green Bay Packers (6-1) at Carolina Panthers (7-0) The Packers are coming off of an embarrassing offensive performance in a loss in Denver. Their high powered offense moved the chains at a mere 68.18% rate and generated just 140 yards of offense, the fewest they’ve had in a game started…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (2-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-0) The Bengals are 7-0 for the first time in franchise history and are one of four remaining undefeated teams. Their undefeated season is highly unlikely to end this week, as they’re favored by 10 at home against the lowly Browns. I actually don’t…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at New Orleans Saints: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick
New York Giants (4-3) at New Orleans Saints (3-4) The Saints were only 2 point favorites in this one last week, but, after their upset victory in Indianapolis, this line moved to 3.5, significant, considering 1 in 6 games is decided by a field goal. Typically, I like to go…
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Continue reading →: San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick
San Francisco 49ers (2-5) at St. Louis Rams (3-3) The Rams are not as good as their 3-3 record, as they rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential. Given that, it might seem a little silly that they’re favored by 9 here against the 49ers. However, I think…
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Continue reading →: Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick
Tennessee Titans (1-5) at Houston Texans (2-5) The Texans are going into a bye this week. That might sound like a good thing, but it’s not, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Big home favorites (6+) typically do very well before a bye (59-20 ATS since 2002), but, for whatever reason,…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (3-4) at Carolina Panthers (6-0) Andrew Luck hasn’t looked right this season. His recent shoulder injury hasn’t helped, but he wasn’t playing well before that either, as he’s graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked quarterback, only ahead of Matt Stafford, on the season. It might be…
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