Miami Dolphins (3-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)
This game was really tough because there are conflicting trends on each side. On one hand, the Dolphins are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 122-87 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 100-59 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 211-214 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.46 points per game, as opposed to 296-419 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.99 points per game.
On the other hand, the Eagles are big home favorites, deserved big home favorites (they rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 23rd for the Dolphins) with an easy game on deck, a home game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a game in which the early line has the as 8.5 point favorites. Teams are 79-39 ATS since 2012 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites again, as good teams tend to take care of business and win big over inferior opponents when they don’t have any upcoming distractions.
I’m taking the Eagles because they’re in a better injury situation. Rookie middle linebacker Jordan Hicks is out for the season, but they should be able to survive now that Mychal Kendricks, Kiko Alonso, and DeMeco Ryans are all healthy again at middle linebacker. On the offensive side of the ball, talented left tackle Jason Peters makes his return, a big boost on the offensive line. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are in their 2nd straight game without key defensive end Cameron Wake, who is out for the season, and right tackle JaWuan James. I’m not confident at all though.
Philadelphia Eagles 20 Miami Dolphins 13
Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6