Kansas City Chiefs (3-5) at Denver Broncos (7-1)
The Chiefs only have three wins, while the Broncos have seven, but the Chiefs actually rank higher than the Broncos in rate of moving the chains differential; While the Broncos rank 17th, the Chiefs rank 15th. How can that be? Well, the Broncos are 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or fewer and the Chiefs are 1-3. These two teams are closer than their records. It hurt the Chiefs losing running back Jamaal Charles for the season with a torn ACL a few weeks back, but the Chiefs’ offense hasn’t really been slowed, as their passing game and offensive line have been a lot better over the past few weeks and backup running back Charcandrick West has impressed. The Chiefs are also missing defensive end Allen Bailey and left guard Ben Grubbs, but the Broncos are missing defensive end DeMarcus Ware and possibly wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders for this one.
This line might feel too low at 4.5, as it seems to for most of the public, as they’re on the Broncos, but it’s actually too high. Considering close to a quarter of games are decided by a field goal or less, this line shouldn’t be any higher than 3. The odds makers have dropped the line throughout the week (it opened at 6), despite public action, never a good sign considering the odds makers always win in the long run. It’s not enough for me to confidently take the Chiefs, especially with the Broncos having an easy game in Chicago next week (teams are 73-50 ATS before being road favorites of 6+ since 2010), but they should be the right side.
Denver Broncos 16 Kansas City Chiefs 13
Pick against the spread: Kansas City +4.5