St. Louis Rams (4-4) at Chicago Bears (3-5)
The Bears are 7 point underdogs here this week and are expected to be 6 point underdogs next week at home for Denver. That’s not usually a good thing, as 6+ point underdogs are 41-63 ATS before being 6+ point underdogs again, since 2012. However, the Bears do not deserve to be underdogs of this many. They rank 20th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Rams rank 26th. The Rams have arguably the worst offense in the NFL, not the kind of offense that can easily cover a touchdown spread. They’ve been better since Todd Gurley returned to the field from his injury, but the same could be said of the Bears with Jay Cutler healthy.
The Bears are moving the chains at a 74.26% rate in the 6 games that Cutler has started and finished, as opposed to 56.25% in their other 2 games. Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte are both questionable for this one, but Jeffery has already missed 4 games with injury and Forte’s replacement Jeremy Langford looked good in his absence last week. Besides, the Rams are missing defensive end Chris Long and possibly safety TJ McDonald. It’s not enough for me to be confident in the Bears at all, especially with such a tough game on deck (teams are 22-52 ATS since 2012 before being 6+ point home underdogs), but they’re my pick here.
St. Louis Rams 16 Chicago Bears 10
Pick against the spread: Chicago +7