Detroit Lions (1-7) at Green Bay Packers (6-2)
R-E-L-A-X. If Aaron Rodgers hadn’t said that last year after the Packers lost 2 of 3 games, he definitely would have said it now, after the Packers have lost 2 straight games. Both losses came on the road, against tough opponents, Carolina and Denver. The Packers still rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite those back-to-back tough road games, and should be able to bounce back at home against a vastly inferior Detroit team. As long as Aaron Rodgers starts (minus any games he’s been knocked out very early with injuries), the Packers are 30-12-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 39-4 straight up, with an absurd +610 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.19 points per game. They haven’t had that same kind of success on the road. Rodgers is also 23-11 ATS off of a loss in his career.
This line is pretty high at 11, but the Lions rank 31st in rate of moving the chains differential. If anything, this line is too low in Lambeau. The Packers would probably be favored by two touchdowns if they had a better showing on the road over the past 2 weeks. The public is all over the Packers, which concerns me, as the public always loses money in the long run, but I don’t see this game being very close and I’m pretty confident laying the 11 points.
Green Bay Packers 34 Detroit Lions 17
Pick against the spread: Green Bay -11