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Continue reading →: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick
Dallas Cowboys (2-3) at New York Giants (3-3) The Giants have never really had a very good homefield advantage, at least not since 2004, the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era. They are 53-42 (45-50 ATS) at home over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.64…
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars in London: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) in London The Bills lost at home 34-21 to the Bengals last week and are in a mess of a situation injury wise, missing quarterback Tyrod Taylor, running back Karlos Williams, wide receiver Sammy Watkins, wide receiver Percy Harvin, and defensive tackle Kyle…
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Continue reading →: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) at Washington Redskins (2-4) The Redskins are going into a bye here, but that’s not a good thing, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Big home favorites (6+) typically do very well before a bye (59-20 ATS since 2002), but, for whatever reason, small home favorites…
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Continue reading →: Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (5-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-4) On paper, this line is too high at 6.5. The Falcons are good, a 5-1 team that ranks 8th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’re coming off of a loss in New Orleans last week, but now they’re in their 2nd…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (1-5) at Arizona Cardinals (4-2) I’m pretty torn on this one. On one hand, the Ravens are in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 119-86 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 97-59 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically,…
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Continue reading →: Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick
Oakland Raiders (2-3) at San Diego Chargers (2-4) The Chargers are 2-4, but they’re much better than their record, as they rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’ve only had a negative rate of moving the chains differential in 2 of 6 games, in Cincinnati and in…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (2-4) at Indianapolis Colts (3-3) The Colts are in a bunch of spots that they’ve been historically good in since Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano arrived in 2012. The Colts are 19-9 ATS at home (including a cover last week as 9.5 point home underdogs in a…
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Continue reading →: New York Jets at New England Patriots: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick
New York Jets (4-1) at New England Patriots (5-0) The Patriots are in a good spot this week, as they are 9 point favorites before being favored by a bunch of points again next week, as they’re expected to be 10.5 point favorites at home over the Miami Dolphins. Big…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at St. Louis Rams: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (2-4) at St. Louis Rams (2-3) One of the most important things to look at when picking a side against the spread is who the teams are playing next. Typically, the difficulty of a team’s upcoming matchup seems to at least correlate with their likelihood of covering this…
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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (2-4) at Miami Dolphins (2-3) The Dolphins were the most disappointing team in the league for the first 4 weeks, going 1-3 (with one win on a punt return), and getting demolished by two divisional rivals, the Bills and the Jets, in games that were technically Miami home…
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