Dallas Cowboys (2-3) at New York Giants (3-3)
The Giants have never really had a very good homefield advantage, at least not since 2004, the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era. They are 53-42 (45-50 ATS) at home over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.64 points per game, as opposed to 54-44 (59-39 ATS) on the road over that time period, getting outscored by an average of 0.16 points per game. On the other side, the Cowboys are 22-22 at home (14-30 ATS) since 2010, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.32 points per game, as opposed to 23-20 on the road (25-17 ATS), getting outscored by an average of 0.26 points per game. The road team generally tends to do well in NFC East matchups overall anyway, for what that’s worth. The road team in NFC East divisional matchups is 37-54 ATS since 2008. On top of that, the Cowboys are 12-3 ATS as 3.5+ point road underdogs since 2010 (4-0 ATS in the division).
However, this line has moved from 5.5 in favor of the Giants last week in the early line to 3.5 now. That cost us a lot of line value. This line is probably still a little bit too high, considering how well the Cowboys typically travel, how little homefield advantage the Giants have, and the fact that the Cowboys rank 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Giants rank 19th. We’re just not really getting enough value with the Cowboys to be too confident in them, especially considering the Cowboys are a publicly backed underdog (which I like to avoid), and considering the Cowboys host the Seahawks next week. The Cowboys are expected to be 5.5 point underdogs in that one. Teams are 71-116 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3+, 40-78 ATS over that same time period before being 4+ point home underdogs, and 39-84 ATS over that same time period before being 6+ point home underdogs. I’m still taking the Cowboys, but I’m not confident at all.
New York Giants 23 Dallas Cowboys 20
Pick against the spread: Dallas +3.5